Former INEC Chairman Jega Analyzes 2023 Presidential Election, Reveals Fresh Discovery May Affect Peter Obi’s Petition
Following the conclusion of the 2023 Nigerians general elections and the controversy arising therefrom, the former chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) Professor Attahiru Jega, has developed an indepth analysis of the polls, particularly the presidential ballot and arrived at the following conclusions:
He said βAsiwaju Bola Tinubu, got only 37% of the vote, down from the 56% that Buhari got in 2019.
Professor Attahiru Jega
βIn 2019 there was a two-horse race between the APC and PDP candidates, 2023 was at least a four-horse race between APC, PDP, LP and NNPP candidates.
βIt was the first time since 2007 that we had more than two major candidates in a presidential election and the first time since 1983 that we had up to four major candidates in such a race.
βThe top four candidates in this election got 37%, 29%, 25% and 6% respectively.
βThis compares closely with 1979 when Shagari got 34%, Awo got 29%, Zik got 16%, Aminu Kano got 10.28 and Waziri Ibrahim got 10%,β he added.
βHowever, the top three runners up in this race got a combined 60% of the vote.
βThat is impressive, but then, they only have themselves to blame that they did not present a united front before the election. They only tried to present a united front to contest the results.
βIt is a case of locking the stables after the horses have bolted. Would they have made 60% of the vote if they had united behind a single candidate? Anybodyβs guess.
βTinubuβs party dived into this election controlling the Federal and 21 state governments. In the event, he won only 12 states outright.
βPDPβs Atiku Abubakar also won 12 states,
βLPβs Peter Obi won 12 states outright [FCT included]
βNNPPβs Kwankwaso won outright in one state,β he narrated.
βSo how did Tinubu win the race? Very simple answer. The number of states that a candidate wins outright is important. Equally important is the number of states in which he came second.
βAlso very important is, if he came second with only a narrow margin in most of them.
βTinubu won 12 states outright [Zamfara, Jigawa, Borno, Niger, Kwara, Kogi, Benue, Ekiti, Oyo, Ogun, Ondo and Rivers]. He came second in 19 states [Kebbi, Sokoto, Kaduna, Katsina, Kano, Gombe, Bauchi, Yobe, Taraba, Nasarawa, Plateau, Adamawa, Osun, Lagos, Cross River, Akwa Ibom, Edo, Imo and Ebonyi]β, he narrated.
βIn many cases the margins of loss were very small, only 3,000 votes in Sokoto, 12,000 in Katsina and equally narrow margins in Osun and Lagos.
βTinubu came second to Kwankwaso in Kano, second to Atiku in most of the states the latter won and second to Obi in Lagos, Ebonyi, Imo and Edo.
βThis was exactly how Alhaji Shehu Shagari won the presidency in 1979.
He won outright in nine states out of 19 [Sokoto, Kaduna, Niger, Bauchi, Gongola, Benue, Kwara, Rivers and Cross River].
βHe won in Kaduna and Gongola even though his party lost the governorship elections there two weeks earlier, what in those days was called βthe bandwagon effect.β
βAlso, Of the remaining ten states in Nigeria at the time, Shagari came second in 9 [Oyo, Ogun, Ondo, Bendel, Anambra, Imo, Borno, Plateau and Kano]. Shagari came third only in Lagos, after Awo and Zik.
βLike Shagari, like Tinubu; you are victorious if your party is either first or second in almost every state.
βTherefore, allegations that APC rigged the election also falls flat because it lost the biggest states, namely Lagos, Kaduna, Kano and Katsina, even though all of them have APC state governors, all of whom are staunchly loyal to Tinubu,β he explained.
βIn terms of vote banks, what is Imo, Edo or Adamawa to these states? Why should anyone go rigging elections in some small states when he could rig up figures in the biggest ones and win by a large margin?
βIf they could help it, why should ten APC governors, APC National Chairman and Director General of the APC campaign suffer the embarrassment of failing to deliver their states?
βWhy should Tinubu himself suffer the embarrassment of failing to win outright in Lagos, long alleged to be his political fiefdom?,β he questioned.
In conclusion, Jega said that allegations that APC rigged these polls are not logical. But those making them still have the chance to prove them at the election tribunals.